中国跨境投资的内外双循环溢出效应

《财经研究》 2022年48卷第3期 页码：4 - 18  online：2022年3月2日

中国跨境投资的内外双循环溢出效应

The Spillover Effect of Internal-External Dual Circulation of China’s Cross-border Investment

作者（中）：李勃昕1, 张玉荣1, 朱承亮2, 李宁3

作者（英）：Li Boxin1, Zhang Yurong1, Zhu Chengliang2, Li Ning3

作者单位：1.西安财经大学 公共管理学院, 陕西 西安 710061 2.中国社会科学院 数量经济与技术经济研究所,北京 100732 3.肯塔基大学 统计学院, 美国肯塔基 莱克星顿 40536

摘要：揭示并验证双向跨境投资驱动内外双循环的动态溢出效应及其互动影响，对推动高层次全面开放、破解单边贸易保护主义制约至关重要。文章基于内外双循环机制，构建中国与其他国家之间的双向跨境投资互动溢出模型，以省际面板数据和跨国面板数据实证检验发现：在内循环阶段，其他国家对中国跨境投资在高强度情况下能够双向激励国内经济增长与技术进步；在外循环阶段，中国对其他国家跨境投资的外向经济溢出效应逐渐转化为技术溢出效应；内外双循环彼此衔接，强化“走出去”能够撬动并放大“引进来”的内向经济溢出效应和技术溢出效应；其他国家对中国的跨境投资有利于逆向释放外循环的多边技术溢出效应。进一步对比分析还发现，高强度的双向跨境投资对经济增长和内生增长的双轨溢出红利仅在发展中国家有效；在“一带一路”建设引领下，沿线国家之间的双向跨境投资有利于获得积极的技术溢出红利。上述结论为击破“中国威胁论”、扩大开放经济影响力、以内外双循环推动全球治理新格局，提供了丰富而有力的实证依据。

关键词：跨境投资; 内外双循环; 经济增长; 技术进步; 多边溢出

Summary: In the new era, the internal-external dual circulation constructs a new pattern of China’s economic development, and cross-border investment presents a dual track driving mode of “bringing in” and “going out”. Two-way coordination pays equal attention to “bringing in” and “going out”, enabling the internal-external dual circulation, so we must examine it from the perspective of interactive spillover.In order to reveal and verify the dynamic spillover effect and interactive impact of two-way cross-border investment, this paper firstly constructs the interactive impact model of two-way cross-border investment between China and other countries, and discusses the economic spillover and technology spillover of foreign capital introduction and foreign investment. Secondly, the linear and nonlinear econometric models are designed. The empirical study shows that the high-intensity absorption of foreign cross-border investment is conducive to promoting domestic economic growth and technological progress, and the outward impact of China’s foreign investment gradually changes from economic spillover to technology spillover. In the process of nested internal-external circulation, strengthening foreign investment can stimulate the inward spillover effect of “bringing in”, while the high intensity of cross-border investment in China by other countries is conducive to the reverse release of the multilateral technology spillover effect of foreign investment in the external circulation. Finally, through the spatiotemporal heterogeneity test, it is also found that the two-dimensional spillover effect of China’s cross-border investment is relatively more favorable in developing countries. Guided by the “Belt and Road” construction, two-way cross-border investment between China and the countries along the border will help to release the positive multilateral technology spillover dividends.The marginal contributions of this paper are as follows: First, through the theoretical model, this paper analyzes the parallel characteristics of China’s cross-border investment from “bringing in” to “going out”, which provides a systematic explanation framework for coordinating “bringing in” and “going out”. Second, empirical research reveals that cross-border investment between China and other countries will derive mutually beneficial mechanisms in the internal-external dual circulation and release multilateral spillover dividends, which provides positive empirical evidence for resolving external bias. Third, two-way cross-border investment will have a differential evolution trend in the two dimensions of economic spillover and technology spillover. The outward spillover effect will gradually shift from economic growth to technological progress, which verifies China’s endogenous contribution to the global value chain. Fourth, heterogeneity analysis verifies that strengthening two-way cross-border investment between China and countries along the “Belt and Road” helps to accelerate economic spillover and technology diffusion.

Key words: cross-border investment; internal-external dual circulation; economic growth; technological progress; multilateral spillover

DOI：10.16538/j.cnki.jfe.20211015.201

收稿日期：2021-7-15

基金项目：国家社会科学基金一般项目（19BJL076）；陕西省创新能力支撑计划软科学一般项目（2021KRM094）

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